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Advisor forecasts big changes in market

JUDITH HARLAN

Where’s the stock market going next? What’s in store for precious metals? Everyone wants to know.A few people make a living predicting such things.

Jonathan C.Arter, senior financial global analyst with the Notley Information Service, is one such person.He’s predicting a rise in precious metals,with gold going up to $1,000 per ounce over the next ten years.”I believe we may see $2,000,” he says.He’s not the only one predicting a rise in gold prices, but he may be in the forefront when it comes to predicting a possible $2,000 price tag.

The Notley system of market analysis, says Arter,makes use of an extensive, historical database.”I can show you a 143-year history of gold prices,” he says.And all of history is relevant, but looking back to most recent history – just back to 1981 – gold hit a high of $824.

So,”it’s probable that we will exceed that in this trend, significantly,” he says.

A spike in gold prices “would have to stay up for a year or so” to be meaningful for Nevada’s mining industry, says Russ Fields, president of Nevada Mining Association.

It can take ten years to get a mine up and running, he adds, and there has to be at least enough time for investors to gain confidence in the market’s stability.

But if the price does go up markedly, he adds,Nevada will be sure to see some expansions of existing mines, as well as reworking of waste rock and tailings.

Arter’s analyses, based on the Notley studies, uses a technique that focuses on cyclic and linear price trends and their respective trend “junctures” or reversals, according to his brief.

The studies look at three cyclic movements, smoothing out the short, jagged edges, and then getting the big picture.Notley studies often show that equity markets fall on one side of an equation,with commodity prices,wholesale prices, and interest rates on the other.

Using this Notley paradigm, the market is shown to be on the move from one side of the equation to the other, according to Arter.

“We hit the top of a bubble in 2000,” says Arter, followed by a bear market from 2000- 2002, the worst since the early ’80s.”That broke the market’s growth trend in Oct., 2002, and was followed with a cyclic bounce that began in March 2003, which, like most bounce phenomenon, took the market a ways back up.

Feb.

2004 saw the top of that bounce, and Arter sees the current market in a second, shorter bounce (which began Oct.

1),with prospects of hitting the top of that bounce in early 2005.

In fact, he forecasts that the seasonal pattern of pension funding and the like hitting the market in early 2005 will be the last of the upward bounce.

Then the ball will begin to fall.

“The good times are over,” he says.

But, opportunities in other market segments – commodities, including precious metals – will abound.

Arter, who put in five years as a senior analyst with Richard Arms, is the inventor of the “ARMS Index,” and a speaker on the subject of financial markets.He’s coming to Nevada to give a talk he has dubbed “Double Bubble, Cyclic Trouble.” Robert B.

Jorgensen, of the Reno branch of Legacy Advisors, LLC, an investment advisory firm, is hosting Arter’s talk as part of Legacy Advisors’ own introduction to the northern Nevada community.

They opened their doors in February of this year.


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