Iraq's neighbors fear overthrow of Saddam

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) -- Turkey's new prime minister compares a war in Iraq to a fire in his neighbor's house, and he's warning Turks that the flames could spread.

That feeling sums up the view of most of Iraq's neighbors. While most of the surrounding countries are not close allies of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, all opposed a war and feared a conflict could end up threatening their own states.

Iran and NATO member Turkey both worry that Iraqi Kurds could benefit from the chaos, possibly forming a new state on their borders -- and encouraging revolt among their own Kurdish minorities.

Syria and Iran, both considered terrorist-sponsoring states by Washington, fear they could become the next targets in a U.S.-led war.

All Iraq's neighbors, including Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, worry that Iraq could fall apart after a war, threatening the region's stability.

"There is a fire next door," said Turkey's new prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. "It will sooner or later jump onto our house."

For Turkey, opposing war meant angering Washington and jeopardizing the country's emerging economic recovery.

The United States considers Turkey to be part of its anti-Iraq coalition. But Turkey's top general, Huseyin Ozkok, hardly sounded enthusiastic even as he tried to push legislators to vote to allow U.S. troops to pass through Turkey for a war.

"Our choice isn't between good and bad. Our choice is between bad and worse," he said early this month.

"One hundred percent of the public is against a war," he added. But "Turkey is not capable of preventing the war on its own. If we don't participate, we will suffer the same harm from war. However, our losses won't ever be compensated and we won't ever have a say in the aftermath."

The United States has offered Turkey a $15 billion aid and loan package if parliament voted to let in 62,000 U.S. soldiers for a war. Turkey would also have a strong say in the future of Iraq if it cooperated with Washington.

The latter is crucial to Turkey, which fears a war could lead Kurds in northern Iraq to declare independence, perhaps inciting Kurdish rebels in southeastern Turkey.

But legislators rejected the plan by just four votes earlier this month, and some pointed out that polls showed as much as 94 percent of Turks opposed a war.

The looming conflict is leading to a sense of dread in Syria.

"A collapse in Iraq, if it happened, will be followed by collapses in other places in the Arab world," political analyst Imad Shuaibi said in Damascus, Syria's capital.

Syria is on the State Department's list of countries that support terrorism, and many Syrians fear their country could be targeted next by Washington.

Syria, like Turkey, also worries about the economic damage from an Iraq war. Turkey says conflict would devastate its $10 billion-a-year tourism industry. Syria fears losing $1.2 billion in Iraqi oil that flows through the country.

But support from some of Iraq's neighbors and at least a lack of opposition from others has been crucial for Washington.

U.S. officials looked to base commandos in eastern Jordan. Those troops could quickly move across the border into Iraq's western desert, which Baghdad used during the 1991 Gulf War as a site for firing Scud missiles into Israel.

The Jordanian government has said only that "several hundred" U.S. troops were on its territory to set up anti-missile batteries to protect the kingdom from Iraqi rockets.

Iran shares a long border with Iraq, and Washington needs the country, a regional powerhouse, to remain quiet during a war and the rebuilding of Iraq.

Iran would not shed any tears if Saddam was toppled. It fought an eight-year war against Iraq in the 1980s and has backed Iraqi opposition groups seeking to topple Saddam.

But Iran had strong political reasons for opposing war. A U.S. victory against Saddam's regime would leave Iran sandwiched between American military forces in Iraq and Afghanistan.

"For Iran this fulfills a nightmare of encirclement," said Dan Plesch, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in London. "Clearly they are extremely wary of a long-term American military presence in Iraq."